Published on October 30, 2015

The NAB residential property survey

The ‘out of control’ price growth in the Sydney property market is has come to an end as that market comes off the boil. Sentiment across the national housing sector weakened in the past two quarters as expectations for continual price growth falls away in most states.

Queensland is the exception, replacing NSW as the most optimistic state for residential property and tipped to lead the country for price and rental growth over the next 1-2 years. Foreign buyers more active in new and established property markets in most states, but continue to play a far bigger role in Victoria relative to other states.

The NAB Residential Property Survey: Q3 2015 reveals that the September quarter was the second consecutive fall; down from 17 to 10 points. This is the first time in a while that the index has been below its long-term average of 14 points.

According to NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster: “It’s not all negative as the overall picture masks some big differences across individual state markets”.

Movements in market sentiment:

  • Queensland: Notably improved sentiment
  • South Australia: Less negative sentiment
  • Northern Territory: Less negative sentiment
  • Victoria: Sentiment has softened
  • New South Wales: Sentiment has softened
  • Western Australia: Sentiment has fallen to a new low

The report says that looking forward, Queensland has replaced NSW as the most optimistic state in the countryfollowed by Victoria. It contrasts Western Australia saying “It remains the most pessimistic”.

Expected national house price growth over the next 1-2 years:

  • Nationally: Scaled back to 1.5 per cent and 1.8 per cent
  • Queensland: A notable improvement in capital growth; 2.6 per cent and & 3.4 per cent
  • New South Wales: 2.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent
  • Victoria 1.9 per cent and 1.9 per cent
  • South Australia: -0.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent
  • Northern Territory: -0.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent
  • Western Australia: -0.7 per cent and 0.4 per cent

While the report reveals that in 2016, average national house price growth will slow down to 2.3 per cent, it is largely driven by the Sydney and Melbourne markets.

NAB Economics expects house price growth to:

  • In Sydney - Decelerate 1.2 per cent
  • In Melbourne - Ease to 3 per cent
  • In Brisbane - Experience the fastest house price growth; 4.5 per cent
  • In Adelaide - Improve to 2.4 per cent
  • In Perth - To remain weak, with price declines to ease; -1.2 per cent
  1. To download the full The NAB Residential Property Survey report go >>>here
  2. To speak with MRD about your next investment property selection contact us (and use the hashtag) #investmentproperty >>>here
  3. To register for next week’s SMSF and Property webinar go >>>here

Nick Lockhart
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